Can You Win Gambling On Sports
A Free Lunch in Sports Betting. Once you have this all down, while it takes other sports bettors a lot of luck to win, the opposite is true for you. A bookie beating an advantage player who uses responsible bet sizing, keeps his composure during downswings while making only +EV bets, is quite difficult. Nov 03, 2017 The 3 Variables Explained. If you have a positive edge in your betting strategy, then the more you bet, the more you’re expected to earn. Therefore a negative edge means the more you bet, the more you’re expected to lose. Your total stake makes up the turnover.The turnover is used to estimate how much you’re expected to win or lose over any period. The casino Sportsbooks make their money on sports bets by collecting a commission on losing bets. This is called the Vigorish or Vig for short. The most common odds are 11 to 10. This means that if you want to win $100 you are risking $110. For example, you place a bet on the Giants at the casino sports book and pay $110. There may even be long periods of time when you go without profit. This is when you need to have faith in your sports betting strategy. You Won’t Win Every Bet. You need to come to terms with the fact that you won’t win every bet. Far from it in fact. It’s all about the long term process and gaining a few% of profit.
How Can You Win Money Betting on Sports? By Frank Gibbons Submitted On June 01, 2010 Online gambling is becoming more and more widespread and people who love gambling are now able to place sports bets online with ease.
GAMBLING IN AUSTRALIA – Some say “punting is a mug’s game”. But is this always true, or can an astute gambler make long-term profits?
Certainly not from casino games. Casinos make profits by paying less than they should on winning bets. A roulette wheel has 37 numbers, so a gambler who bets a dollar has a 1/37 chance of winning and should receive back $37 on a winning number.
But the casino pays only $36.
On average, a gambler loses $1 for every $37 they bet: a loss of 2.7%.
This is the cost of playing the game and it’s the profit the casino makes often called the “house percentage”.
Houses of all sizes
For casino games such as roulette, Keno and poker machines, the house percentage can be calculated mathematically, and in spite of many proposed betting systems, is an immutable and unchangeable number. No strategy can be used by the punter to make the game profitable.
While gamblers may experience short-term lucky streaks, in the long run they will lose this predetermined percentage of their wagers. But a sensible casino gambler should at least be familiar with the house percentages:
Betting the win line at craps at 1.4%, or red or black at roulette at 2.7%, might be a better option than Keno or Lotto with a house percentage of over 40%.
Let’s be clear here: for every $100 bet through Tattslotto or Powerball, the “house” only pays out $60, keeping $40 for itself.
But sports betting is different.
In a horse race, the chance of winning (and hence the price for a winning bet) is determined subjectively, either by the bookmaker or by the weight of money invested by the public.
If 20% of the amount a bookmaker takes on a race is for the favourite, the public is effectively estimating that particular horse’s chance of winning at one in five. But the bookmaker might set the horse’s winning price at $4.50 (for every $1 bet, the punter gets $4.50 back), giving the bookie a house percentage of 10%.
But a trainer, or jockey with inside knowledge (or statistician with a mathematical model based on past data), may estimate this same horse’s chances at one in three. If the savvy punter is correct, then for every $3 bet they average $4.50 return.
A logical punter looks for value – bets that pay more than a fair price as determined by their true probability of winning. There are several reasons why sports betting lends itself to punters seeking value bets.
A sporting chance
In general, more outcomes in a game allow for a higher house percentage. With two even outcomes (betting on a head or tail with a single coin toss, say), a fair price would be $2.
The operator might be able to pay out as little $1.90, giving a house percentage of 5%, but anything less than this would probably see little interest from gamblers.
But a Keno game with 20 million outcomes might only pay $1 million for a winning $1 bet, rather than a fair $20,000,000. A payout of $1 million gives a staggering house percentage of 95%.
Traditionally, sports betting was restricted to horse, harness and dog racing – events with several outcomes that allowed house percentages of around 15%-20%.
With the extension into many other team and individual sports, betting on which of the two participants would win reduced a bookmaker’s take to as little as 3%-4%.
Competition reduces this further. Only the state-run totalisator (an automated system which like Tattslotto, determined the winning prices after the event, thus always ensuring the legislated house percentage), and a handful of on-course bookmakers were originally allowed to offer bets on horse racing, whereas countless internet operators now compete.
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Betfair even allows punters to bet against each other, effectively creating millions of “bookmakers”.
Head or heart
Many sports punters bet with their hearts, not their heads. This reduces the prices of popular players or teams, thereby increasing the price of their opponents. The low margins and extensive competition even allow punters to sometimes find arbitrage opportunities (where betting on both sides with different bookmakers allows a profit whoever wins).
To overcome their heart, and lack of inside knowledge, many mathematicians create mathematical and statistical models based on past data and results to predict the chances of sports outcomes. They prove the veracity of their models by testing (either on past data or in real time) whether they would profit if the predictions were used for betting.
Academics call the ability to show a profit the “inefficiency of betting markets”, and there are many papers to suggest sports markets are inefficient. Of course the more successful have a vested interest in keeping their methods to themselves and may not publicise their results.
Astute punters can make sports betting profitable in the long term. But the profits made by the plethora of sports bookmakers indicate that most sports punters are not that astute.
This is part four of The Conversation’s Gambling in Australia series. Read part one: Gambling in Australian culture: more than just a day at the races; part two: Promotion of gambling short-changes Australian sport … and its fans; and part three: Get rich or die trying: when gambling becomes a problem.
Without a doubt, the number one question we get asked in regards to betting
online is “How do I make money gambling online?” The answer as you might expect
is not a simple answer. While we wish we could just tell you to “do x, y, and z
and you’ll be rich,” it’s just not that simple.
Making money online comes down to game selection and having clear
expectations of what you’re doing. The opportunities are huge, and there are
millions and millions to be made if you look in the right spots. Lucky for you,
we’re going to do our best to educate you and point you in the right direction.
The best way for us to approach answering this question is to answer it
individually for each different type of online gambling/betting that exists.
Specifically today we’re going to look at sports betting online, casino/table
games online, and skill-based online games. There are a few other obscure forms
of gambling online that do exist, but these main categories should encompass
almost all of the major types that are out there.
As a spoiler, I can tell you that it is possible to make money at each of
these, though, some will depend solely on your luck while the others are
sustainable based on your skill and abilities. The difference is going to come
down to whether the game is a luck based or skill based game. Let’s clarify the
difference first before we dive into each individual type of online gambling and
how to make money at it.
Luck vs. Skill
If you’ve ever hung around a casino or talked to gamblers before, you’ve
probably heard someone at least once tell you that they had a system to beat a
certain game. It might have been craps or roulette or maybe even blackjack. The
problem we always noticed when we heard this from someone was that they were
broke or were not rolling in the money. If they truly had a system to beat a
casino game, wouldn’t they be doing it 24/7 and living the high life?
The real reason they don’t do this 24/7 for a living and aren’t living the
high life is that
most casino games are luck based. Luck based games are games
where the house has the edge. This means that there are no super secret systems
out there that can beat these games outside of cheating. Does this mean you
can’t make money at them? Of course not. All it means is that in the long-run
over thousands and thousands of hands, spins, or rolls, the casino is going to
win.
This means you can most certainly make money in the short run. Many gamblers
go months and sometimes years winning at games. The thing to note, though, is
that this is a statistical anomaly that will correct itself. In the end, the
casino will ALWAYS win at luck based games. There is a silly cliché phrase
that explains this:
Spotting a luck based game is easy. If the game is run by a casino (live or
online) and you are playing against the casino and not versus other players,
this is a luck based game, and they are going to have a long run edge. Again,
you can still make money playing these games (and lots of it), but in the long
run over thousands and thousands of games, the casino will ultimately win.
Skill-based games, on the other hand, have no house edge. These games are
ones where players compete against each other instead of against the house (the
casino). The casino will take a small fee for facilitating the game, but
ultimately it is up to the players who wins the money.
Skill-based games are sustainable ways for people to make money long-term. If
you are good at a skill based game and can continually get people to compete
against you, you can make a full-time living playing the game. These games are
easy to spot as they are games where players are competing against other players
and not the house.
Making Money Online Playing Casino Games and Slots
We have some good news, and we have some bad news when it comes to making
money gambling on your favorite casino games and slots. The bad news is that
online casino games and slots are games of luck that the house will always have
a long-term edge on. The good news is that regardless of this, you can still
make a lot of money at them!
Addressing the bad news first, you need to realize that there is no system
out there to “beat” online casino games to make a living playing them. You will
never be able to be a professional slots player or a professional roulette
player or anything like that. Ultimately, the casino edge and statistics are
going to prevail, and the casino is going to win. Understanding this is
imperative to have a great time playing these games online.
Regarding the good news, though, this does not mean you can’t make money
playing online casino games and slots. First, the casino edge is only for the
long term. The long term usually means hundreds of thousands and millions of
spins of a slot or roulette wheel or hundreds of thousands of tosses of the
craps dice etc. You may play the games and never ever experience the long term
statistics correcting themselves. The casino edge on most games is only a couple
of percentage points meaning you can totally have major winning sessions and
runs.
An Analogy to Help
Imagine this analogy. There are two bettors, you and a friend, who are going
to bet on the flip of a coin. You are going to take turns flipping the coin with
you allowed to bet on every flip. If the flip is heads, you win your bet. If the
flip is tails, you lose your bet. You do not have a choice; you have to bet
heads every time.
We all know that coins are going to land on heads 50% of the time and on
tails 50% of the time. Let’s say we alter the coin a little bit to make it more
like when we are betting against the casino giving them an edge. Let’s say that
this coin lands on heads only 48% of the time and on tails 52% of the time.
This represents the long-term edge that the casino is going to have.
You and your friend start flipping the coin and placing your bets against the
house. You each get to flip the coin 50 times. If everything happened without
any variance, you both would get heads about 48% of your flips and lose a tiny
bit of money to the casino over the course of the flips. But variance comes into
play. Variance says that over ALL 100 flips about 48% will be heads, but it
doesn’t necessarily say which of you two are going to get more or less of the
heads in the short run.
It’s possible that you get heads 48 of your 50 flips and your friend gets
heads zero times in their 50 flips. At the end of the day in the long-run, the
casino is still making money because it is winning 52% of its bets, but you’ve
made an absolute TON of money. The point here is that most recreational gamblers
will be operating in the short term for most or their entire gambling career.
Jackpots
Part of the way that this variance spreads itself out is through jackpots.
Not all players are going to win jackpots but if you do win one you can bet that
you’re going to be a lifetime profitable gambler (depending on the size of the
jackpot of course). Jackpots still fall in line when it comes to
statistics and house edge, but that doesn’t mean you can’t be one of the players
to fall outside of the statistical norm and strike it rich!
Bonuses
One way to fight back against the house edge and a lot of times turn it in
your favor (at least temporarily) is by
taking advantage of bonuses. Bonuses, as
you may already know, are free money/free spins/free play that online casino
sites will give you to try to attract your business. A lot of times the benefits
of these bonuses will turn the odds in your favor while you are using the bonus.
Of course, they won’t give you the bonus forever because they would lose
money and have to shut their doors. But in the short term, you can definitely
take full advantage of these promotions and clean up some easy cash. It’s also
of importance to note that there is no reason you can’t jump between a few sites
to take advantage of different promotions.
This is a lot like going to a different grocery store for a week because you
have a coupon for something. There is nothing unethical about it, and the sites
actually would prefer you use their promotions. The reason they run the promos
is to get you in the door to try out their product in hopes that you will stay
or make a change from your home site.
Making Money Online Sports Betting
Sports betting is a complete 180 the other direction from online slots and
table games. Sports betting is a skill based bet (depending on the bets you
choose). While you might think you are betting against the house, they are
actually manipulating lines so that you’re basically betting against other
players and they are taking a small fee for facilitating the bets. With proper
skill and a sharp eye, you can make a living as a sports bettor. Is this
difficult? You bet your butt it’s difficult but it’s completely possible, and a
lot of people do it every day.
So how do you make money online betting sports?
Simple. Join a sportsbook and
start making correct picks. Start with a sport that you know well and do
extensive research. If you can come up with a system to properly predict games
and outcomes, you can be a successful sports bettor.
One thing that is extremely important to point out is that you have to choose
the right type of sports bets or you’re going to be placing luck based bets
instead of skill based bets. As you may or may not know, you can bet on a lot
more than just who the winner of a game is going to be. You can bet how many
points will be scored, how many times they will do something, who will score
first etc. Some of these bets will require research and skill to make a correct
pick, and some are just going to be dumb luck.
Here are two different sports bet as an example. One is a skill based bet and
one is a luck based bet.
- Will Rob Gronkowski score more or less than 1.5 touchdowns in a game?
- Will the final score of the Patriots be odd or even?
As you can hopefully see, the first bet would require you to have strong
knowledge of how Rob Gronkowski is going to perform in a game. You would have to
look at the defense he is up against and predict the game plan of attack the
Patriots employ. There is a lot of skill that goes into picking this bet and the
more knowledgeable and skilled you are, the better off you will do. This is an
example of a skill based bet that you could profit from long term if you were
sharp enough.
The second bet about whether or not their final point total is odd or even is
really just dumb luck. You could make some crazy argument that you can predict
the exact game flow and how many points they score, but in reality, you are just
guessing. This is an example of a luck based bet that you can still make money
off of but it is not sustainable long term. As long as you’re aware of this,
have at it!
It’s important to point out that these bets are not segregated or separated
at all when you go to the online sportsbooks. The luck based and the skill based
bets are all going to be listed side by side, and it’s up to you to be able to
decipher the difference. Honestly, it should be easy to tell the difference by
just taking a few minutes to pay attention to what you’re betting on. If it is
something that you are struggling to find data and information to support your
pick, it is probably a luck based bet.
The Beauty of Line Shopping Online
One of the easiest ways to make MORE money online with correct sports betting
picks is through line shopping. Line shopping is a strategy that is not possible
with brick and mortar casinos due to logistics and has really only become
popular thanks to online sportsbooks. Line shopping is the process of checking
several different sportsbooks to get the best odds and payouts possible for your
bets.
You just can’t do this in real life unless you live somewhere like Vegas
where you have a ton of different sportsbooks right next to each other. Even
then, most of the books there are interconnected, so the odds are going to be
the same at all of them. Online, though, you tend to see a lot of greatly
varying lines for the same bet.
Let’s say you are planning to bet the Miami Heat to beat
the Golden State Warriors on the moneyline at +150. Let’s say you’re totally
confident on this bet and you think it’s the easiest bet in the world. Is this a
good bet for you to make?
A better question would be, is this the best bet you can make? If you were to
take a few seconds and line shop another online sportsbook, you would see that
one is offering the same bet for +170. This is the exact same bet except if you
place it at the second online sportsbook you will get paid out more money. If
you bet $100 and the Heat win, the first sportsbook will pay you $150 in profit
and the second will pay you $170 in profit.
By simply taking advantage of the technology that comes with betting online,
you can make MORE money on a correct pick just by taking a few seconds to check
a few different sportsbooks. We can assure that this is not a rare occurrence to
find varying lines. It’s actually a fairly common occurrence to find different
lines, and it can greatly affect the amount of money you make betting online.
Making Money Online Playing Skill-Based Games
You may notice that in the title of this section it does not say anything
about “gambling.” This is because gambling refers to placing wagers on a game of
chance that you have no control over. Out of all the different bet types on this
page, these are the ones that you have the most control over. Skill-based games
are games that pit two or more players against each other. Skill-based games are
NOT played against the house, but as we stated earlier, the house takes a small
cut for facilitating the game.
Skill based games can 100% be played for a living as long as you can continue
to get people willing to play against you. While some of these games do have an
element of luck, the majority of the game’s outcome is determined by skill. This
means that a worse player may win a few games in the short run, but the better
player will always win out in the long run.
For example, if you get your money in the middle playing Texas Hold em poker
(a skill based game) with pocket Aces against J-10, you’re supposed to win that
hand based on the statistics. However, it is entirely possible that you lose
that hand in an unlucky fashion. If you continue to get your money in
significantly ahead, though, statistics should even out, and you should make
money in the long run. Though you might lose in the short run, you will prevail
in the long run.
Some of the most popular skill games you can play for money online are:
For more information on playing these games online, here’s a guide we’ve put
together for you:
The Bottom Line of How to Make Money Gambling Online
Can You Win Gambling On Sports Medicine
Hopefully, if you’ve read until this point, you have a pretty strong idea of
the different options you have when it comes to making money gambling online.
Depending on whether you’re just looking for some recreational fun or a way to
make a living, we’ve given you several different options in both directions.
Can You Win Gambling On Sports Bar
Remember, be realistic with your expectations and don’t try and make a career
out of a game that you are not statistically supposed to win long term at.